Strategic blueprints, scenario analyses, policy briefs, and op-eds published continuously by our resident fellows and external contributors. Search the library, filter by format, or browse by topic. All papers are open-access; subscribers to The Long View receive embargoed previews.
China’s economic weakness in 2026 is being driven by structural forces, not a short-term slowdown. A persistent real estate crisis, weak inflation, overcapacity, debt stress, and rapid aging are combining to drag on growth, confidence, and household wealth.
The 2026 oil shock is benefiting Brazil by boosting crude export revenues, widening the trade surplus, supporting the real, improving the current account, and lifting fiscal receipts. As a low-cost pre-salt producer, Brazil is emerging as one of the clearest macroeconomic winners from higher oil prices.
